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Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

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    #91
    Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

    Originally posted by kmulder View Post
    I also own apple tv and will wait to see what there new software will bring.
    Ken,

    I think your points about Vudu are valid as to people knowing about them. Hopefully, they can start launching some ads soon on the web or in print (TV's expensive). I'm sure Vudu and Apple both would love to do something for the Academy Awards but who knows if that show will even happen with the WGA strike.

    Anyhow, I veer off course.

    Since I am not seen as an "objective" person by a number of people on the board, would you be so kind as to post a comparison review of Vudu and AppleTV 2.0 when it comes out? I plan on doing a similar thing, but again, you are someone who has absolutely no basis for being biased for against either product and you are an expert in home theatre and capabilities. I think the forum would benefit a lot from an honest review by someone like yourself.

    Comment


      #92
      Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

      I will be happy to post my opinions of the Apple TV when it comes out.
      I have just been looking at their first look video and the new software does look interesting.
      It looks like it can show around 18 movies icons on the screen at once and you can scroll horizontally or vertically through them.
      Something I believe I saw someone asking Vudu to do on this forum.
      It also will have trailers. The trailers on the Apple TV are one of the nicer features of that product.
      They are full screen trailers in High quality. One of the things on the Vudu that I wish they would improve is the trailer previews. They are in that little box on the screen and they are poor quality compared to the quality of the rentals on the box.
      The interface looks very similar to Vudu with out the scroll wheel of course.

      Comment


        #93
        Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

        This is interesting...I just did a software update on my Mac. New iTunes is out. Here is the description:

        Rent and download your favorite movies with iTunes on your computer or directly to your living room on Apple TV. Enjoy rented movies in sizes up to 720p HD with surround sound on your Apple TV and sizes up to DVD-quality on your computer. Transfer your rented movies from iTunes to your iPod or iPhone and enjoy them on the go.

        Also, purchase and download your favorite TV shows, music, and more directly on your Apple TV. Effortlessly transfer purchases made on Apple TV back to your computer with iTunes.
        Reading this as written it looks like to me that HD content will ONLY be RENTABLE. No HD purchases. It says "Enjoy RENTED movies in sizes up to 720p.." And the HD is not playable on the computer - ATV only.

        I find that very interesting - particularly the lack of mentioning anything about purchasing in HD...I just might stay awake for the SW to download and then check it out...

        Comment


          #94
          Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

          OK. I just loaded the new iTunes and went to the iTunes store.

          The rentable movies are there. But I've not been able to see any from the computer listed as "HD". Also, a link that say "New Rentals on iTunes" takes you to a page with purchase only movies! Ooops!

          Anyhow, not all rentable movies are purchasable. Live Free or Die Hard can be rented but it can't be purchased. Other movies can be purchased but not rented. Others like Underdog have both options.

          The movie pages don't detail too well the sound quality.

          I DO like the fact I can rent something and take it with me on my iPod. I've got a business trip this weekend and I may take advantage of that...

          Comment


            #95
            Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

            This made me laugh....

            And Apple is not so perfect with marketing either. Every hear of the G4 Cube? Or how about the fact that the AppleTV has been a flop for the past year? Or did you ever hear of NBC? Hmm...Try to find NBC shows on iTunes. Apple screwed that one up. And now recording studios are putting out DRM free content. But except for one studio, it isn't on iTunes...
            This made me laugh. You have to go back to the G4 to get a good example of an Apple flop. That is saying something. And when Apple stands up for consumers you throw it in their face? And here is my question to you. You heard in the keynote, or can easily look up how many Apple TVs have shipped.
            Are you going to be willing to call Vudu a "flop" when they don't ship well over a million units in their first year?
            http://www.blitzkit.com - for Oatmeal, Hot Cereal and Whole Food lovers

            http://www.rushingaround.com - My webpage

            Comment


              #96
              Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

              Originally posted by StevenRushing View Post
              This made me laugh. You have to go back to the G4 to get a good example of an Apple flop. That is saying something. And when Apple stands up for consumers you throw it in their face? And here is my question to you. You heard in the keynote, or can easily look up how many Apple TVs have shipped.

              Are you going to be willing to call Vudu a "flop" when they don't ship well over a million units in their first year?
              Are you implying that Apple TV has sold over a million units in there first year? Because if you are, you are way off. The number is actually estimated by macworld to be closer to 400,000 units since the device went on sale.

              http://www.macworld.com/article/6140...2/appletv.html

              Comment


                #97
                Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

                Originally posted by rstone View Post
                Are you implying that Apple TV has sold over a million units in there first year? Because if you are, you are way off. The number is actually estimated by macworld to be closer to 400,000 units since the device went on sale.

                http://www.macworld.com/article/6140...2/appletv.html
                No, he's not. I'll defend his comments even though he smacked me down with them!

                People are critical of the AppleTV and have called it a failure and a flop because it has not sold 1 million units in its first year in existence (and as you rightly point out it's like 400,000 but maybe even less).

                He's wanting to know if I'm going to use the same measuring stick for Vudu.

                It's a fair question but I would say no that I'm not going to. Apple is a multi-billion dollar publicly traded company. Vudu is a small start-up with a handful of people. Vudu doesn't need to sell 1 million units for them to be successful. But Apple because of its size really does need to as far as critics and the markets are concerned.

                I think if a no-name company like Vudu manages to sell between 50,000 and 100,000 units in year one, it will be considered a HUGE success considering they started from nowhere. I have no idea what Vudu's numbers are.

                Given the fact that Apple has owned digital media and the portable player market, yeah, AppleTV was a flop since the theory was that most of the people with iPods would want a compatible device that would let them view content on their TVs. Plus Apple has a lot of kool-aid drinkers (I could possibly be considered one of them) who will buy a new Apple product simply because Apple came out with it. But this didn't happen with the ATV.

                Comment


                  #98
                  Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

                  Engadget has posted the limits of Apple TV:

                  http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/16/i...u-can-and-can/

                  Looks like the polish is coming off of it due to the confusion of what you can and can't do in the device and the desktop.

                  Comment


                    #99
                    Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

                    Originally posted by NA9D View Post
                    ...I think if a no-name company like Vudu manages to sell between 50,000 and 100,000 units in year one, it will be considered a HUGE success considering they started from nowhere. I have no idea what Vudu's numbers are.
                    NA9D - not sure the numbers support this; it may be a successful proof of concept, but the underlying numbers would less than stellar. At 50k and 100k users and with hugely favorable assumptions regarding average revenue per user;zero discounting on HW/Service; very low customer acquisition costs; zero churn and so on...vudu would likely generate somewhere in the range of $33-67m for 50 & 100k users respectively.

                    The breakout would be:
                    At 50k users that would be $20m for box sales and $13m in service revenue.
                    At 100k users that would be $40m for box sales and $27m in service revenue.

                    HW revenue will decrease as a % of total revenue over time while average service revenue remain the same. I.e. your average rentals per user remain stable.

                    Given that, and given the lack of extensibility (a la iTunes/iPhone/iPod/Laptop) I would argue that the metric for success would be multiples of 100k....as in 500k-1m users where economies of scale increase gross revenue revenue and net-margins for the service to levels where they have scale. I.e. fixed costs remain the same to serve 250k users as 500k as 1m. I.e. Operations, Licensing (codec) and Royalty costs are stable relative to revenue and and the production cost per box/unit decreases in line with the prices; or at least simply decreases.

                    It's going to be tough for Vudu to achieve those numbers organically...as a stand-alone, they're going to burn through marketing cash to establish presence and keep the growth rates going...

                    Comment


                      Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

                      Originally posted by Limey
                      ....The breakout would be:
                      At 50k users that would be $20m for box sales and $13m in service revenue.
                      At 100k users that would be $40m for box sales and $27m in service revenue.
                      sorry for the double post, but I forgot to add:

                      Apple is projected to have a ~40% GM on on the iPhone et al and "razor thin" margins on iTunes (music) sales...let's just say it's 10%.

                      If vudu were on par with Apple, Vudus net (remedial net&math here)
                      $8m and $1.3m for HW/Service @ 50k users; and
                      $16m and $2.6m for HW/Service @ 100k users

                      Based on relative scale, however, I would guess Vudu's margins are running greater less than 50% of Apple. At 50k users we're talking ~$4.5m net....absolute best case and assume no discounting on boxes over current.

                      Comment


                        Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

                        Ach! NA9D threw the name out there and I have to embrace it.

                        My name is Steven and I am an Apple Koolaid drinker.

                        Not to say I don't like my Vudu. =)
                        http://www.blitzkit.com - for Oatmeal, Hot Cereal and Whole Food lovers

                        http://www.rushingaround.com - My webpage

                        Comment


                          Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

                          Originally posted by Limey View Post

                          Based on relative scale, however, I would guess Vudu's margins are running greater less than 50% of Apple. At 50k users we're talking ~$4.5m net....absolute best case and assume no discounting on boxes over current.
                          But it's all relative and as a startup with VC funding, all you really have to do is show your investors that you are ahead of or are on your business plan.

                          People seem to think that Vudu is going to stand still when that isn't the case. The box might not be extensible right now, but give it a rest - the thing has been shipping for what - 4 months? Who is to say that a year from now, the capabilities won't be completely different?

                          It's also very possible that Vudu will at some point license their technology to other companies. Or maybe some larger company will buy them.

                          The point is that you don't have to sell 500,000 of something to be successful.

                          Comment


                            Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

                            I was actually trying to be quite careful not to criticize here, just killing some time whilst on a concall by attaching some numbers to the user count you mentioned as well as point out some (obvious) barriers.

                            Comment


                              Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

                              Originally posted by Limey View Post
                              sorry for the double post, but I forgot to add:

                              Apple is projected to have a ~40% GM on on the iPhone et al and "razor thin" margins on iTunes (music) sales...let's just say it's 10%.

                              If vudu were on par with Apple, Vudus net (remedial net&math here)
                              $8m and $1.3m for HW/Service @ 50k users; and
                              $16m and $2.6m for HW/Service @ 100k users

                              Based on relative scale, however, I would guess Vudu's margins are running greater less than 50% of Apple. At 50k users we're talking ~$4.5m net....absolute best case and assume no discounting on boxes over current.
                              While I dont know what kinda profit VUDU is making, I do know that with Apple TV you can make some conclusions from research analysis of the innards of the device, which connects a TV to videos stored on a Mac or Windows computer.

                              Having been taken apart, it is estimated that the components and materials used to make Apple TV cost $237. Since Apple sells the 40GB unit for $299, that would leave a gross profit of $62, or about 20%, before marketing costs. With Apple TV's 160GB, which sold for $399, or $100 more than the basic model, the 160GB hard drive costs $73, so the relatively modest price difference between the two drives boosts Apple's profit margin on the higher-capacity model to more than 30%.

                              Having just lowered the price recently, this would reduce that profit margin to a loss of -$8 per 40GB unit, and $19 per 160GB unit.

                              Comment


                                Re: Apple TV take 2: 100 hd titles today

                                Originally posted by rstone View Post
                                Having just lowered the price recently, this would reduce that profit margin to a loss of -$8 per 40GB unit, and $19 per 160GB unit.
                                Apple could be trying the Razor Blade or Printer Ink cartridge pricing model. Sell the hardware at cost and make it up in supplies. In their case the actual content. I can't even guess what Apple's share of a 2.99 rental is.

                                Comment

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