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The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

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    The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

    I have read a lot of complaints about the UV system, both here, and at other Home Entertainment forums. A lot of their complaints revolve around the idea that they might one day lose access to their films, because of the one year guarantee for streaming access. They think it means it will expire after one year.

    They are also concerned that they cannot download a film once, and play it on multiple devices. They don't want to have to download it once on their computer, again on their iPad, again on their set top boxes that support downloads, and again on their gaming consoles. That is a lot of downloading, just to be able to play their collection on multiple devices. And an iPad can only hold about 4 to 8 movies, depending on the size. You would have to re-download the same movie if you wanted to watch it again later. iTunes ability to download once, and then move it to other computers, iPhones, iPads, back and forth, and to stream to Apple TV boxes is a big advantage iTunes has over UV.

    When the Common File Format is deployed, and they are able to download a film once, and play it on common players, it will be a game changer, as long as long as enough players support it. We already know that PowerDVD will support it, and that is good, but that's not enough. We can speculate that Windows Media Player will support it, since Microsoft is a member of Dece, but we don't know for sure. We need to reach out to other players, such as Plex, XBMC, and others to encourage them to add support. People definitely want to be able to stream movies from their network to their TV.

    UV success will also require some new providers to support UV. If Amazon Instant, Xbox video Store, LoveFilm, Google Play, or Sony Entertainment Network add support, then I would say at that point UV would be accepted by the mainstream consumer. Right now it is a niche format. Amazon and Xbox video store both have about 15% marketshare for EST. Vudu has less than 5%.

    Take a look at these traffic graphs. They clearly show that vudu and other UV providers are not market leaders at this time. I have compared vudu traffic to Redbox, Blinkbox, Lovefilm, Redbox Instant, Netflix, and CinemaNow. I can't compare to Amazon Instant, or xBox video store because they don't have their own domain names. But we can compare vudu to Netflix, which we know has 30 million subscribers. The only other SVOD provider that get's more traffic than vudu is Lovefilm. UV would really take off in Europe if they launched UV.

    Notice how vudu slowed way down around April the 20th. Still hasn't recovered yet.
    Last edited by echopulse; 06-30-2013, 10:52 AM. Reason: edited for clarity

    #2
    Re: The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

    I can only attach 4 images in a post, so here are the last two. The growth of vudu, and the downward spiral of flixster is very interesting to me.

    Comment


      #3
      Re: The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

      I am confused. What are the numbers on the "Y" axis? In each graph, Vudu's numbers are different.

      I agree Vudu/UV are not EST market leaders. All the data suggests that.

      One bright spot is the Digital Copy market. There has been a successful Coup d'etat with Vudu/UV emerging as the undisputed market leader. This is a recent phenomena and I think it fair to say will have a ripple effect.

      Comment


        #4
        Re: The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

        Alexa traks the 100,000 most visted web sites. The most visited is #1, that's Google. Vudu has been fluctuating between 12,000 and 6,000 for the last 3 months. The numbers don't change, they just contract when they have to show different data points that are further away. Netflix closes in at 100. Redbox hovers at about 2,000. I would really like to see vudu climb to 5,000 and stay above that level. I think they would have to start an advertising campaign for that though.

        Comment


          #5
          Re: The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

          Originally posted by echopulse View Post
          Alexa traks the 100,000 most visted web sites. The most visited is #1, that's Google. Vudu has been fluctuating between 12,000 and 6,000 for the last 3 months. The numbers don't change, they just contract when they have to show different data points that are further away. Netflix closes in at 100. Redbox hovers at about 2,000. I would really like to see vudu climb to 5,000 and stay above that level. I think they would have to start an advertising campaign for that though.

          ahh, cool. Thx for clarifying. The graphs make sense now to me.

          The big battle in the future I think is between SVoD and iVoD/EST. From what I have read, the jury is still out on the projections on if consumers will just enjoy revolving en-mass content delivered to them like a big-ol digital buffet or if they will like to have a more personal static content that iVoD/EST brings.

          Recently Netflix has been taking some black eyes in bad press. Still, they stand at the top of the heap.

          Thx for compiling this data. I agree, it will be interesting to see the trend lines in the coming months.

          I do take dispute with the idea that UV/Vudu is a niche when they are the leader in the digital copy market. Walking down the video isle of any store that sells DVDs/Bluray Discs is clear that UV is here to stay. Classifying it as a "niche" I feel is unfair characterization. Fully half of all packaged media sold is UV exclusive digital copy. The other half has it as one of two options. That is 75% market share.

          Comment


            #6
            Re: The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

            I don't think you can do the math like that. What's available doesn't really matter, since half of discs sold offer both iTunes and UV. What matters most is how many of those digital copies are redeemed. Some analysts have said that iTunes redemptions are leading 5 to 1 when users are offered a choice. And I bet millions of people don't redeem the digital copies at all. But this is all just speculation, until someone releases some numbers. And DECE has been quiet lately, which usually means that it's not what they want.

            http://www.streamingmedia.com/Articl...nce-90546.aspx

            Comment


              #7
              Re: The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

              There are accounts of Japanese fighters still held up on pacific islands long after the war was over

              The trend lines could not be more unambiguously clear.

              Let me tell a story.

              One time, not so long ago, there was a program called Napster.

              Everyone had it. There was suggestion that the Internet would morph into just one big collection of Napster nodes.

              I do feel you are coming off as a Japanese soldier held up still fighting after the victor had been declared long since.

              Comment


                #8
                Re: The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

                You think I have my head in the sand? I don't. But I know what the reality is. The reality is, that UV will fail to really take off if it is too cumbersome to use. And that depends on whether you use vudu, or flixster for your first UV redemption. Flixster, IMO is terrible. It's slow. When I try to load my library it will begin checking UV for new titles, and sometimes it will find some, or most of my titles, but not all. Sometimes, it won't find any. And it takes forever to do so, and never really finishes. Then you have to re-link and try again. Like many others, I gave up on flixter. Many titles aren't even available on flixster. All in all, I don't know anyone who has had a good experience with it.

                Vudu, on the other hand, is the exact opposite. It's always fast, and always loads new titles instantly. Almost 99% of titles are available to play. The only problem I have with vudu is the library is not large enough. They need to increase it by about 5,000 titles, and mainstream ones, to be competitive with Amazon Instant. Back to flixster. I think that half of people who are introduced to UV from flixster probably quit using it. They gave up because it wasn't worth the time and effort. It's easier to rip it themselves than to deal with flixster. The problem is, many people don't know about vudu. They use flixster, because it became the #1 movie app for iPhone and Android phones. So they already have the app. It gets downloaded hundreds of thousands of times every month, according to the google play store. vudu, on the other hand, only got a few tens of thousands of downloads it's first month. So, vudu really needs to step up and do something to get some attention and become the go to site for UV movies. To do that, they need to tell people that they exist, and that they are easy to use, fast, and have all the films they want. So they need to advertise.

                Word of mouth is good, but that won't reach everybody. The CFF on the other hand, will do a lot to help UV, and in turn, vudu. They need to hurry it up.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Re: The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

                  CFF launch will provide a media splash more then a simple 24 hr cycle. It should last over a month. I agree this will be very helpful.

                  I guess it seems like you are suggesting if X is not met or Y does not get done by [enter provider name] then UV will fail.

                  I do concur that UV is in the midst of the drive to critical mass. They have obtained the high ground in the key market of digital copy redemption, gaining valuable consumer exposure in the process. This was clearly the design of some very intelligent consumer behavior market analysis and executed beautifully.

                  This battle is over. UV has gained the high ground. Mt. Suribachi flies the UV flag and the hold up iTunes loyalist in the caves need come to terms with being vanquished. I am not sure if you fall into this category or not.

                  To suggest the initera built by UV in the last 12 months is precarious and able to be reversed I disagree with. On the contrary, I think the shift in the market will soon be like what was seen back when we had HD-DVD discs being pressed and in like six months they ceased production with Bluray disc arriving as the sole HD format. It was an abrupt change.

                  The studios and consumers are best served by a single format. The studios have chosen UV. I am not sure what recourse there is left.

                  I actually think all UV players should continue to ride the hockey stick growth curve and do as little as possible to change the success curve they are on.

                  Once again, we are on a growth curve to add 900,000 - 1,600,000 new UV users per month forecasted for the next five years.

                  Q1`13 were very encouraging numbers. Q2 has just ended, and I suspect will surpass Q1 by a significant amount.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Re: The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

                    My point is that we're not there yet, not that we are not on the way to getting there. But it will take some time to reach mainstream adoption. I have 430 UV movies, and about 5 iTunes movies, so I am not beholden to iTunes at all. I just realize they have 450 million accounts. I agree that UV is here to stay, but that doesn't mean that iTunes will not co-exist alongside it. It's not going anywhere either. I don't hold out hope that iTunes will ever be UV capable, but it is possible. Disney will most certainly join UV in the next 18 months I think for sure. My point was that if Amazon, or another major provider offers UV files then it will speed up the adoption by a significant margin. You point about having 900k new accounts per month I don't think is accurate. In Jan there were 9 mil accounts. After 7 months, there are an additional 4 mil accounts. That's 570k accounts per months. It's slowing down from what it was in the last quarter of 2012. That's only if the numbers in that article are true.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Re: The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

                      I agree with the OP on the basis of the topic. CFF release will see a steep rise in UV adoption as the ecosystem goes truly portable, even offline. Like anything new, there is a hesitance to committ to one system, but, as Walt reminds us so frequently, once all hands are played, UV will likely win (it has studio backing which others lack). I don't see Netflix and Vudu/UV as direct competiton, at least not how I use them (have never 'rented' a movie on Vudu).

                      The next hurdle will be the EST transition from physical media, which requires even wider adoption and even higher quality content (equal to physical media). Vudu is setting themselves up to maximize on this by being the best UV streaming service.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Re: The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

                        I agree with that then.

                        One point. The addition of 900,000 - 1,600,000 new UV users per month forecasted for the next five years is not my estimation.

                        Is is a forecast done by ABI Research.

                        They estimate somewhere between 65 million to 108 million in five years.

                        Using the currently published total accounts as a starting point, you can do the math what that equates to.

                        My masters degree is not in math, but I think my numbers are accurate.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Re: The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

                          I would like to make it clear that one of my major points was that ultimately, UV will probably not be embraced by the mainstream consumer if it's not available on a platform that is used by millions of people, and frankly, it does not appear that vudu is used by more than a fraction of the people that use other platforms, i.e., Amazon Instant, xBox video, etc. I do think Redbox Instant has the power to change that if it keeps growing, if it does add UV soon.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Re: The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

                            Originally posted by echopulse View Post
                            I would like to make it clear that one of my major points was that ultimately, UV will probably not be embraced by the mainstream consumer if it's not available on a platform that is used by millions of people, and frankly, it does not appear that vudu is used by more than a fraction of the people that use other platforms, i.e., Amazon Instant, xBox video, etc. I do think Redbox Instant has the power to change that if it keeps growing, if it does add UV soon.

                            prognosticating the consumer acceptance of applications and technologies is historically futile.

                            One thing that is clear, with 1mil new users per month for the next five years, the trend indicates a bright future for UV.

                            Also, the studios have embraced it, leaving the consumers little recourse.

                            I guess I missed where you spelled out how there is a contrary trend.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Re: The Common File Format will be a UV Game Changer

                              I, for one, a longtime VUDU customer, can't wait for CFF to be deployed...I have not purchased many movies as I normally do, and I won't untill CFF arrives......I want the ability to store the files on my NAS, and play through the network.....For my purposes, CFF is critical....along with having DTS-MA and Dolby TrueHD audio(which is part of the spec).....I hope my WD Live Hub will be compliant.......other set top boxes should have the ability too......

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